New Delhi: The implementation of the Women’s Reservation Bill (Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam), which has already been passed by Parliament, could significantly reshape India’s political landscape if enforced without waiting for delimitation.
According to an analysis based on Election Commission voter data for 2024, if 33% reservation for women is implemented immediately using a seat rotation method, several high-profile political leaders may be forced to vacate their current Lok Sabha constituencies.
The analysis suggests that constituencies with a higher proportion of women voters compared to the state average would be reserved for women candidates. Based on this formula, around 181 Lok Sabha seats could be earmarked for women.
Among the prominent leaders who could be affected are Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli, Rajnath Singh from Lucknow, and Nitin Gadkari from Nagpur.
In Uttar Pradesh, the average share of women voters stands at 46.7%. However, Rae Bareli has 47.69% female voters, while Lucknow has 47.11%, putting both constituencies in the potential reservation bracket. Similarly, in Maharashtra, where the average female voter share is 48%, Nagpur records 49.9%, making it a strong candidate for reservation.
Other constituencies that may fall under this category include Amethi, previously represented by Smriti Irani and now held by Kishori Lal Sharma.
The potential impact extends beyond a few leaders. Several other prominent politicians such as Anurag Thakur (Hamirpur), H. D. Kumaraswamy (Mandya), Jitan Ram Manjhi (Gaya), Gaurav Gogoi (Jorhat), Kalyan Banerjee (Serampore), and Kirti Azad (Bardhaman-Durgapur) could also see their seats reserved for women under this system.
Experts say that while the bill aims to enhance women’s representation in politics, its immediate implementation without delimitation could trigger major political shifts and force established leaders to seek new constituencies.
